Just three months ago, none of us imagined what the world would look like today. So it is with due recognition that prediction is an imprecise science that we offer the following thoughts from our respective sides of the Atlantic about what the reaction to the Coronavirus tells us for what may come next in geo-politics and geo-economics.

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First, the nation state is back. At a time of huge challenge and public fear, people look to their national leadership to guide them. Within the global order of nation states, things are shifting too.

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The crisis has accentuated the decline of the U.S. in relation to China—the most powerful country on earth cannot manage a pandemic as well as “emerging” China (even allowing for unreliable Chinese statistics). Russia is finding a new place too, snuck in alongside China. U.S. reluctance to treat allies as allies is weakening the transatlantic bond. […]

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